The Islamic State (IS) group has recently been implicated in a series of violent attacks, signalling a troubling resurgence. On New Year’s Day 2025, a truck attack in New Orleans resulted in 15 fatalities and approximately 30 injuries. The assailant, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a U.S. citizen, displayed an Islamic State flag during the incident. This attack has raised alarms about the group’s ongoing influence and capability to inspire domestic terrorism.
Recent Operations and Claims
On January 1, 2025, IS claimed responsibility for an attack on a military base in Puntland, Somalia, resulting in over 20 military personnel deaths. The group used 12 militants and two explosive vehicles. Despite being largely defeated in previous years, IS has executed attacks, including a March concert hall assault in Russia that killed at least 143 people and bombings in Kerman, Iran, that claimed nearly 100 lives.
Inspiration for Lone Wolf Attacks
IS has inspired numerous lone wolf attacks in Western nations. In August 2024, authorities reported that a 19-year-old Austrian had planned an attack on a Taylor Swift concert, pledging allegiance to IS. Such incidents highlight the group’s ability to influence individuals far from its operational bases.
Historical Context of IS
At its peak from 2014 to 2017, IS controlled vast territories in Syria and Iraq, enforcing brutal governance. The group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared himself “caliph” before being killed in 2019. The collapse of the IS caliphate occurred following extensive military campaigns by a U.S.-led coalition, pushing the group into a more fragmented existence.
Current Tactics and Strategies
Since losing its territorial control, IS has adapted its tactics. The group now operates through autonomous cells, employing hit-and-run strategies. Its leadership remains secretive, with estimates suggesting around 10,000 fighters still active in the region. Many foreign fighters have joined the Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan, indicating a shift in operational focus.
IS Expansion into Africa
IS has also expanded its influence in Africa. The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in Uganda, linked to IS, have conducted various violent attacks, including a school massacre and killings in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Other groups across West Africa and the Sahel have pledged allegiance to IS, controlling territories in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
Assessment of Overall Strength
The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center has reported a decline in IS’s overall threat level due to the suppression of its most dangerous elements. However, many IS branches remain active, particularly in Africa, posing a potential risk for further expansion. The loss of key leaders has contributed to a decrease in attacks in the Middle East, but the group continues to adapt and evolve.
- Shamsud-Din Jabbar was a U.S. citizen from Texas.
- IS’s Khorasan branch operates along Iran’s borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- IS is also referred to as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh.
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared himself “caliph” in 2014.
- The ADF has moved operations primarily to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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